DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/26 12:02
Grains Higher at Midday
Midday trade is seeing light gains after a mixed morning.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 100 points.
The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 10 points
higher. Energies are firmer with crude up 0.55. Livestock trade is higher.
Precious metals are mixed with gold down $4.30.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday. We saw pressure Tuesday due to
rain and expected rain today, but the confidence for follow-up rain next week
is mixed. Temperatures should be normal to below normal, so without stressful
weather market, bulls may have trouble near term. Ethanol margins have improved
this week with the strength in the energy complex and lower corn futures. The
weekly EIA report had production down 1.36% and stocks down 2.75%, which is
lifting ethanol at midday. Corn basis remains soft with plenty of old-crop
stocks still around. On the December chart, support is at the new July low made
overnight at $3.80 1/2 with resistance at the 200-day at $3.88 then the 10-day
Soybean trade is 7 cents higher at midday with light two-sided trade early
on with follow-through selling and short profit-taking. Meal is $2 higher and
soybean oil is 15 higher. Cooler temperatures with some moisture was viewed as
less threatening for the coming weeks. helping to add to the selling with the
system bringing rain today, although early returns are a bit on the light side.
We still have six important weeks of weather ahead for beans. Basis has
remained steady to firm, with good nearby export demand at the gulf noted
Tuesday. On the November chart, support is at the 200-day at 9.85 with
resistance at the 20-day at 9.97.
Wheat trade is 1 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade working to bounce
back from oversold conditions as the spring wheat tour continues. Most world
export business remains focused on Europe with France winning the Algerian
tender today. With the dollar around the yearly lows, there is hope for export
U.S. improvement, but world supplies remain ample. The spring wheat tour is in
the better areas of the eastern growing area today with the first-day average
at 37.9 bushels per acre. Trade continues to add carry in the spring wheat,
with winter wheat keeping the ample carry in place. On the December KC
contract, support is the 100-day at $4.94. Resistance is at the 50-day at $5.06
then the 10-day at $5.31.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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